Niger coup creates dilemma

By Gregory Simpkins

The coup virus in Africa continues to infect nations – even those that had seemed somewhat immune. Niger has been considered a beacon of democracy in what has been euphemistically called West Africa’s “coup belt”. It now has experienced its own military takeover, forcing Western nations to rethink their relationships with a key regional ally in the fight against terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, but this situation is more complicated than even that. This was the Sahel’s seventh coup in recent years. From Mali in the west to Sudan in the east, a whole swathe of Africa is now governed by the military.

According to The Dispatch, the Nigerien military took democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum and his family into custody, declaring the constitution dissolved and the government suspended in favor of a military junta called the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane of the Nigerien Air Force – a spokesperson for the coup – went on state television, flanked by nine fellow coup leaders, to inform the populace that they had “put an end to the regime that you know due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.”

The junta later claimed that the presidential guard had seized the government due to the declining security, economic and social conditions prevailing in the former French colony of 25 million people.

There initially was some uncertainty about who was in charge of the junta, but two days later, it was announced that General Abdourahamane Tchiani, previously head of the presidential guard, was declared head of state. The junta has not been recognized by any of its allies as of this writing.

Niger has a long history of military coups since its independence from France in 1960, though in recent years it had been less politically unstable. When Bazoum came to office in 2021, it was the country’s first democratic transfer of power. Western nations, such as the United States and France worked with the government, especially its military in anti-jihadist activities in Africa’s volatile Sahel region.

CNN reported that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on the Sunday following the coup demanded that Bazoum be released and reinstated within a week. ECOWAS and the eight-member West African Economic and Monetary Union said that with immediate effect borders with Niger would be closed, commercial flights banned, financial transactions halted, national assets frozen and aid ended. Military officials involved in the coup would be banned from travelling and have their assets frozen.

Should the junta remain in charge, ECOWAS said it would “take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger,” including the use of force. ECOWAS said it would reject any form of resignation that may purportedly come from Bazoum, who they consider a hostage.

France and the European Union said early on that they would support ECOWAS organizations if they decided to sanction the junta. The two had already cut off financial support for Niger, which is heavily dependent upon foreign aid. After an emergency meeting two days after the coup, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council issued a statement demanding the military return to their barracks and restore constitutional order within 15 days. It did not say what would happen after that.

Early on, some were concerned that Niger’s military leaders may have found one potential ally according to CNN: the country’s eastern neighbor, Chad. Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno was in Niamey, Niger’s capital, on Sunday, according to a source close to the Nigerien military, and photographed alongside a key figure in the putsch. Chad is not a member of the ECOWAS. However, it was revealed later that Deby, who came to power in 2021 after a coup, met his Nigerian counterpart Bola Tinubu on the sidelines of the ECOWAS summit and volunteered to speak to the military leaders in Niger, two presidential aides told Reuters, asking not to be identified. So, Deby may just be acting as an intermediary rather than a junta ally. The coup leaders have gained support from fellow coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, but it remains unclear what role the Wagner Group, Russia’s international stalking horse, is playing behind the scenes in Niger.

Closing Niger’s borders will be quite difficult if Chad doesn’t fully cooperate, and adding to the difficulty, the Libyan, Malian, Nigerian and Burkina Faso borders are not the most secure, with various jihadist groups crossing regularly along with numerous criminal elements. This was the threat for which the Nigerien military was cooperating with international forces.

Niger’s prime minister under Bazoum’s government, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, who was out of the country when the coup occurred said ECOWAS sanctions would be disastrous because the country relies heavily on international partners to cover its budgetary needs.

“I know the fragility of Niger, I know the economic and financial context of Niger having been the finance minister and now prime minister,” Mahamadou told France24 television from Paris. “This is a country that will not be able to resist these kinds of sanctions. It will be catastrophic.”

Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, receiving close to US$2 billion a year in official development assistance, according to the World Bank. The United Nations said the coup has not affected its deliveries of humanitarian aid.

The BBC reports concerns that Niger’s new leadership could move away from its Western allies and closer to Russia. If it does, it would follow the path of two of its neighbors – Burkina Faso and Mali – which have both pivoted towards Moscow since recent military coups of their own. They had been under intense pressure from Islamist groups which operated freely across much of both countries. Yet while Niger had been battling its own jihadist insurgency and rural banditry, it had appeared relatively more stable than its neighbors. The number of reported deaths from political violence since 2021 was far lower in Niger, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project.

Concern about the Barzoum government’s ability to effectively manage military action against jihadist groups on the surface seems unfounded. Four other elements likely are at play in fomenting this coup or complicating the response to it.

Complicating factors

First, there are apparently many in Niger that have been unhappy with French involvement in the campaign against jihadist violence and other issues. Some crowds came out in support of Bazoum on the day of the coup, but tense and sometimes violent scenes played out in front of the French embassy in Niger Sunday as thousands of people who support the military coup voiced anger over France’s influence in its former colony.

BBC reported demonstrators shouting support for Russian leader Vladimir Putin despite public calls from the Kremlin to release the country’s democratically elected Bazoum. Some protesters tore down a plaque identifying the Embassy, stomped on it and then replaced it with Russian and Nigerien flags. Shouts of “long live Putin,” “long live Russia” and “down with France” could be heard among the crowds.

“Niger has suffered too much under French orders. I have been unemployed for 10 years because of their system,” said Karimou Sidi, one of the demonstrators. “We want freedom.”

Hadiza Kanto, a university student who had come to protest, said he supported the leaders of the coup because “they are against France who robbed us all.”

“We’re going to get France out of Africa,” Kanto said.

According to CNN, Russia has, in recent years, attempted to capitalize on that anti-colonial sentiment to bolster its influence across the continent.

Whatever the anti-French sentiments among the populace, Nigerien security forces were seen deploying tear gas in an attempt to disperse the protesters. One photograph from the scene showed people trying to start a fire outside the compound. French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said France would immediately retaliate against anyone who attacks French nationals or facilities in Niger.

The second complicating factor is that Niger is a key partner of the European Union in helping curb the flow of irregular migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The EU also has a small number of troops in Niger for a military training mission. France and the United States, which use it as a base for their efforts to contain jihadist insurgency in West and Central Africa’s Sahel region. The United States has two military bases in Niger with approximately 1,100 soldiers and also provides hundreds of millions of dollars to the country in security and development aid.

“We join ECOWAS and regional leaders in calling for the immediate release of President Mohamed Bazoum and his family and the restoration of all state functions to the legitimate, democratically elected government,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement.

But while the United States supports ECOWAS and EU sanctions, it is slow to impose its own largely because of its investment in working with Niger on fighting jihadists in the Sahel is a sunk cost that cannot be recovered and threatens to be lost if the United States cuts ties and withdraws.

The third complicating factor is that Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). The radioactive metal is the most widely used fuel for nuclear energy and is also used in treating cancer, for naval propulsion and in nuclear weapons. Niger, which has Africa’s highest-grade uranium ores, produced 2,020 metric tons of uranium in 2022, about 5 percent of world mining output, according to the WNA. This was down from 2,991 tons in 2020. Niger supplies the EU with almost 25 percent of its reserves. The French state-owned nuclear energy company Orana says nuclear power plants in France source less than 10 percent of their uranium from the African country.

Not only is this material valuable to modern economies, but there would be justifiable concern about it being safeguarded if relations with the Nigerien junta were completely broken, and they were alienated completely from the international community. The Nigerien military has fought with the West against jihadists but imagine what would happen if a rejected Nigerien government began selling uranium to governments and elements who use it for nefarious purposes.

The fourth factor involves the rumor that Barzoum was preparing or at least considering the firing of Tchiani. If this rumor is true, it makes a reversal of the coup almost impossible as the coup leaders wouldn’t likely be able to arrange for amnesty for their actions as they would seem to justify the supposed action against Tchiani in the first place. It would be unlikely for Tchiani and the other coup leaders to give up power without being forced to do so, and how could both sides continue to coexist in trust?

Similar sanctions were imposed by ECOWAS on Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea following coups in those countries in the past 3 years. Although the financial sanctions led to defaults on debt – in Mali in particular – such measures have tended to hurt civilians more than the military leaders who seized power in some of the world’s poorest countries, political analysts say. Timelines to restore civilian rule have been agreed in all three countries, but there has been little progress implementing them.

Given the complications involved in the Niger situation, one wonders how this matter can be resolved in relatively short order with a minimum of bloodshed, restoration of constitutional order and safeguarding of a volatile natural resource?

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He also serves as Managing Director for the Morganthau Stirling consulting firm, where he oversees program development and implementation. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.